The last PIP-VEVE cycle finished on 5 August, when we sold VEVE at 108.63.
I had imagined we would have bought again by now. We haven't.
VEVE set a new high of 109.05 on 13 August, and on four occasions since then it has come within a few pence of our buy price.
Otherwise it has more or less moved sideways, until this Tuesday, when it set a new closing high of 109.54. That came off the back of all-time or near all-time highs for both the NASDAQ (US tech stocks) and the S&P 500 (the broader US stock market) over the last couple of days.
Those highs reflect the confidence, perhaps overconfidence, of investors around the world who see little threat of a US recession on the horizon.
A US recession is the thing most likely to upset the stock market apple cart properly. War, inflation and interest rates don't appear to be doing it. They're all baked into the current price.
But VEVE doesn't need a recession to fall 3%. It just needs enough investors to act the same way at the same time. Some taking profit, some slightly spooked by something. A disappointing US jobs number, a new war, anything really.
That will happen at some point. There's no way of knowing when. In recent cycles the buy point has come anywhere from a few days to a few weeks after a new high. I'm not feeling anything in my waters either way this time.
Tuesday's high came over a month after the previous one. Does that mean the market has stalled, and a 3% drop might come sooner rather than later? Who knows.
If you're watching the price, the new buy target is 106.25.