Frank made back-to-back holes in one - a moment he will never forget – what are the odds? A truly “black swan” event. Read about it (and the one before) here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/c3g9lk37wjzo
We all want a hole in one in golf, to get two in a row is amazing, it will be a long time before you ever hear of it again.
Does that make Frank Bensel Jr the best golfer ever? Of course not, few will ever have heard of him. And back-to-back holes in one did him few favours on this particular round – he bogeyed the next four holes and finished well over par.
At that exact moment in time the conditions, his mindset, luck – everything was aligned. A matter of minutes later and mediocrity had returned.
He got lucky and then returned to normal.
Which got me thinking about luck in investing.
How much luck vs real skill rains down on those that get the big investment wins, that they then crow about to the rest of us?
What does their record before the big win and just after tell us about their real investing abilities?
What works better in the long run – spectacular wins amid a sea of mediocrity or a slow steady unspectacular approach?
Great golfers play consistently round after round and become champions. So do great investors.